Over 1 in 4 Americans will be Latino by 2060, census projects

The U.S. Latino population, currently constituting approximately one-fifth of Americans, is anticipated to steadily rise, reaching over 25% by 2060, as per the latest projections from the U.S. Census Bureau released on Thursday.

At present, Hispanics make up 19.1% of the U.S. population, with projections indicating an increase to 26.9% within the next four decades. In contrast, the non-Hispanic white population is expected to decline from its current 58.9% to 44.9% by the year 2060.

The overall U.S. population is forecasted to grow from its current 333 million to a peak of nearly 370 million in 2080. Subsequently, there is a projected decline to 366 million by the year 2100.

The Census Bureau presented four sets of population projections based on different scenarios, including the middle series (considered the most likely), the high immigration scenario, the low immigration scenario, and the far less likely zero-immigration scenario.

Across all scenarios, a decline in fertility rates and an aging population are anticipated to result in more deaths than births in the U.S.

This is projected to occur in 2038 in the most likely scenario, 2036 in the low immigration scenario, and 2042 in the high immigration scenario. In the unlikely zero-immigration scenario, it is expected to happen as early as 2033.

Due to the projection of more deaths than births, immigration is foreseen as the primary driver of population growth. In the high immigration scenario, the U.S. population is estimated to reach 435 million by the year 2100.

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